Lloyds Banking Group PLC: Q1 2021 Interim Management Statement
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DGAP-News: Lloyds Banking Group PLC
/ Key word(s): Quarterly / Interim Statement
Lloyds Banking Group plc Q1 2021 Interim Management Statement 28 April 2021
RESULTS FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH 2021 "The coronavirus pandemic continues to have a significant impact on people, businesses and communities in the UK and around the world. Whilst we are seeing positive signs, notably the progress of the vaccine roll-out and the emergence from lockdown restrictions, the outlook remains uncertain. The Group remains absolutely focused on supporting its customers and Helping Britain Recover from the financial effects of the pandemic. The long-run transformation of the Group has positioned the business well to address the challenges of the pandemic. We have made a strong start to the year with the quarterly results and on delivering Strategic Review 2021. It is with both pride and sadness that I will step down as Group Chief Executive later this month. Most importantly, the Group is well placed for sustainable success and the publication of Strategic Review 2021 in February shows that the Group has clear execution outcomes for 2021, underpinned by long-term strategic vision. The Group also has exceptional people. I am very proud of all of our colleagues across the Group, who have again shown their continued dedication and relentless focus on supporting their customers through these challenging times." António Horta-Osório, Group Chief Executive "As this is António's last set of results, I would like to take this opportunity to thank him, on behalf of the Board, for his outstanding contribution. Over the last decade he has led the transformation of the business; delivering its purpose of Helping Britain Prosper whilst creating a truly customer focussed business underpinned by strong financial foundations." Robin Budenberg, Chair
INCOME STATEMENT - UNDERLYING BASIS
KEY BALANCE SHEET METRICS
QUARTERLY INFORMATION
BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS
REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE Solid financial performance reflects business momentum and improved economic outlook The Group's statutory profit before tax for the first quarter of 2021 was £1,898 million, benefiting from solid business momentum and a net impairment credit as a result of the UK's improved economic outlook. Underlying profit was £2,071 million, compared to £558 million in the first three months of 2020, reflecting both the improved impairment outcome and lower total costs, partially offset by lower net income. Trading surplus is recovering at £1,748 million, down 12 per cent compared to the first three months of 2020, but up 21 per cent on the fourth quarter of 2020. Average interest-earning banking assets were up 2 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2020 at £439 billion, driven by growth in the open mortgage book and an increase in government-backed lending. This was partially offset by lower balances in credit cards, motor finance and unsecured personal loans, as well as the effects of the continued optimisation of the Corporate and Institutional book within Commercial Banking. Low single-digit percentage growth in average interest-earning assets is now expected in 2021. The Group manages the risk to its earnings and capital from movements in interest rates centrally by hedging the net liabilities which are stable or less sensitive to movements in rates. As at 31 March 2021 the Group's structural hedge had an approved capacity of £210 billion (in-line with year-end 2020), a nominal balance of £207 billion (31 December 2020: £186 billion) which has increased towards approved capacity and a weighted-average duration of around three-and-a-half years (31 December 2020: around two-and-a-half years). The Group generated £0.5 billion (on a 3 month LIBOR basis) of gross income from the structural hedge balances in the first quarter of 2021 (first quarter of 2020: £0.7 billion, fourth quarter of 2020: £0.5 billion) with emerging benefits from higher market rates seen in the quarter. Following the end of the quarter, the Group's approved structural hedge capacity has been increased to £225 billion, capturing part of the liability growth since the beginning of 2020 and reflecting the Group's continued success in attracting current account balances over the last year. The Group now expects the net interest margin for 2021 to be in excess of 245 basis points. Other income of £1,135 million was 7 per cent lower than in the first quarter of 2020 reflecting lower levels of customer activity and new business as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, particularly within Retail and Insurance and Wealth. This was in part mitigated by strong performance in the Group's equity investment businesses. In aggregate the Group's other income was up 6 per cent relative to the fourth quarter of 2020, when the Group took a charge in Insurance and Wealth for the annual basis review. Operating lease depreciation reduced to £148 million (three months to 31 March 2020: £224 million) as a result of the continued impact of a smaller Lex fleet size, combined with a benefit from the more resilient used car price outlook of The Group continues to expect operating costs for 2021 to reduce to c.£7.5 billion including net coronavirus-related costs and compensation headwinds.
REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE (continued) Remediation charges of £65 million (three months to 31 March 2020: £87 million) were related to pre-existing programmes. As highlighted in the 2020 results, in relation to HBOS Reading, decisions from the independent panel re-review on direct and consequential losses will start to be issued during 2021. This is likely to result in further charges but it is not possible to estimate the potential impact at this stage. The Group's ECL allowance reduced in the quarter from £6.9 billion to £6.2 billion, of which £459 million resulted from improvements to the economic outlook, including the impact of the extension of the Government's Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Reductions in Commercial Banking ECL also reflect improved outcomes on restructuring cases, lower flows to default and recent reductions in exposures due to asset optimisation. The ECL allowance remains high by historical standards and is consistent with the Group's updated macroeconomic projections. It assumes that a large proportion of expected losses will crystallise over the next 12 to 18 months as support measures subside and unemployment increases. Observed credit performance has remained stable in the quarter, with the flow of assets into arrears, defaults and write-offs remaining at low levels in part due to the continued effectiveness of support schemes, including the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and payment holidays extended by the Group which have now largely matured. The Group has maintained judgemental ECL allowances in respect of losses assumed to have been suppressed over the last 12 months by support schemes, given that cumulative losses remain lower than would have ordinarily been anticipated. The Group's £400 million central overlay was added at year end in recognition of the significant uncertainty with regard to the efficacy of the vaccine, the vaccination rollout, potential virus mutations and economic performance post lockdown restrictions and Government support. Although the base case outlook has improved in the first quarter, the Group still considers these risks to remain and that the conditioning assumptions for the base case and associated scenarios around this do not necessarily capture these unprecedented risks. Given the benefit recognised in the first quarter of the year, the full year charge is now expected to be materially lower than the guidance set out at year-end. Based on the Group's improved economic assumptions, the net asset quality ratio for 2021 is now expected to be below 25 basis points.
REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE (continued) Impairment charge
ECL allowance as a percentage of drawn balances
REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE (continued) Return on tangible equity for the period was 13.9 per cent (three months to 31 March 2020: 3.7 per cent) and earnings per share were 1.8 pence (three months to 31 March 2020: 0.5 pence), both reflecting the benefit of the impairment credit. The Group recognised a tax expense of £501 million in the period compared to a credit of £406 million in the first three months of 2020. The prior year credit included an uplift in deferred tax assets following the announcement by the UK Government that it would maintain the corporation tax rate at 19 per cent. On 3 March 2021, the Government announced its intention to increase the rate of corporation tax from 19 per cent to 25 per cent with effect from 1 April 2023. Had this change in corporation tax rate been substantively enacted at 31 March 2021, the impact would have been to recognise a c.£1 billion deferred tax credit in the income statement and a c.£150 million debit within other comprehensive income, increasing the Group's net deferred tax asset by c.£850 million. Given the improved outlook for both the net interest margin and asset quality ratio, the statutory return on tangible equity for 2021 is now expected to be between 8 and 10 per cent, excluding a c.2.5 percentage point benefit from tax rate changes. As previously noted the Group will update the market on interim dividend payments with the half-year results, subsequent to reviewing the PRA's update on distributions which is expected ahead of the half-year results reporting cycle for the large UK banks. In the interim the Group's dividend accrual has been made on an appropriately prudent basis (as set out above) in accordance with PRA guidance. As previously stated, the Board intends to resume its progressive and sustainable ordinary dividend policy with the dividend at a higher level than 2020. The PRA is continuing to consult on a proposal to reverse the revised capital treatment of intangible software assets that was implemented in December 2020 via EU capital regulations. Should the PRA proceed with their proposal then the reinstatement of the original requirement to deduct these assets from capital will come into force during the year. This would lead to a c.50 basis points reduction in the Group's CET1 capital ratio (net of a reduction in associated risk-weighted assets) and based on the position at 31 March 2021 the ratio would reduce to 16.2 per cent.
REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE (continued) Risk-weighted assets reduced by £3.8 billion during the quarter, primarily driven by optimisation activity undertaken in Commercial Banking of around £2.5 billion and foreign exchange and other market impacts of £1.1 billion, alongside limited credit migration and balance sheet growth. The Group continues to expect 2021 risk-weighted assets to be broadly stable on 2020. The Board's view of the ongoing level of CET1 capital required by the Group to grow the business, meet regulatory requirements and cover uncertainties remains at c.12.5 per cent, plus a management buffer of c.1 per cent. The Group's CET1 capital regulatory requirement is currently c.11 per cent. The transitional total capital ratio reduced to 23.0 per cent (31 December 2020: 23.3 per cent) and the transitional minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL) reduced to 36.1 per cent (31 December 2020: 36.4 per cent) reflecting the impact of movements in rates and the annual reduction in transitional limits applied to legacy tier 1 and tier 2 instruments, which more than offset the increase in CET1 capital. The UK leverage ratio increased to 6.0 per cent. ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION
As announced at the full year results, the Group has revised its definition of return on tangible equity. Statutory profit after tax is adjusted to deduct profit attributable to non-controlling interests and other equity holders and is divided by average tangible equity.
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued)
The analyses which follow have been presented on an underlying basis. Refer to basis of presentation on page 19. Impairment charge by division
Movements in ECL by division on an underlying basis
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued) Group loans and advances to customers and expected credit loss allowances - underlying basis
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued)
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued) Group Stage 2 loans and advances to customers - underlying basis
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued) UK economic assumptions - Base case scenario by quarter Key quarterly assumptions made by the Group are shown below. Gross domestic product is presented quarter on quarter, house price growth and commercial real estate growth is presented year on year.
UK economic assumptions - Scenarios by year Key annual assumptions made by the Group are shown below. Gross domestic product is presented as an annual change, house price growth and commercial real estate price growth are presented as the growth in the respective indices within the period. UK Bank Rate and unemployment rate are averages for the period.
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued)
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued) ECL sensitivity to economic assumptions The measurement of ECL reflects an unbiased probability-weighted range of possible future economic outcomes. The Group achieves this by generating four economic scenarios to reflect the range of outcomes; the central scenario reflects the Group's base case assumptions used for medium-term planning purposes, an upside and a downside scenario are also selected together with a severe downside scenario. The base case, upside and downside scenarios carry a 30 per cent weighting; the severe downside is weighted at 10 per cent. The table below shows the Group's ECL for the upside, base case, downside and severe downside scenarios. The stage allocation for an asset is based on the overall scenario probability-weighted PD and, hence, the Stage 2 allocation is constant across all the scenarios. ECL applied through individual assessments and post-model adjustments is reported flat against each economic scenario, reflecting the basis on which they are evaluated.
Application of judgement in adjustments to modelled ECL allowances Judgements are not typically assessed under each distinct economic scenario used to generate ECL, but instead are applied on the basis of final modelled ECL which reflects the probability weighted view of all scenarios. All adjustments are assessed quarterly and are subject to internal review and challenge, including by the Audit Committee, to ensure that amounts are appropriately calculated and that there are specific release criteria within a reasonable timeframe. The coronavirus pandemic and the various support measures that have been put in place have resulted in an economic environment which differs significantly from the historical economic conditions upon which the impairment models have been built. As a result, there is a need for management judgement to be applied, as seen in the elevated levels present since year end. Given continued macroeconomic uncertainties, the Group has retained the judgemental overlays applied at year end for coronavirus and other unrelated model limitations. Management judgements in respect of coronavirus of c.£1 billion (31 December 2020: c.£0.9 billion) include the central £400 million overlay (31 December 2020: £400 million) in respect of risks around base case conditioning assumptions which are not sufficiently captured by the Group's approach to multiple economic scenarios, as well as c.£600 million of judgements within the underlying portfolios (31 December 2020: c.£500 million). ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued) Commercial Banking lending in key coronavirus-impacted sectors1
Support measures Retail payment holiday characteristics1
Government-backed loan scheme approvals and value1
BASIS OF PRESENTATION This release covers the results of Lloyds Banking Group plc together with its subsidiaries (the Group) for the three months ended 31 March 2021. Statutory basis: Statutory profit / loss before tax and statutory profit after tax are included within this document. However, a number of factors have had a significant effect on the comparability of the Group's financial position and results. Accordingly, the results are also presented on an underlying basis. Underlying basis: The statutory results are adjusted for certain items which are listed below, to allow a comparison of the Group's underlying performance
Analyses of lending and ECL allowances are presented on an underlying basis. On a statutory basis, purchased or originated credit-impaired (POCI) assets include a fixed pool of mortgages that were purchased as part of the HBOS acquisition at a deep discount to face value reflecting credit losses incurred from the point of origination to the date of acquisition. Over time, these POCI assets will run off as the loans redeem, pay down or losses will be crystallised. The underlying basis assumes that the lending assets acquired as part of a business combination were originated by the Group and are classified as either Stage 1, 2 or 3 according to the change in credit risk over the period since origination. Underlying ECL allowances have been calculated accordingly. The Group uses the underlying basis to monitor the creditworthiness of the lending portfolio and related ECL allowances. On a statutory basis, reverse repurchase and repurchase transaction balances are accounted for as loans and advances to customers and as customer deposits, respectively. However, as such balances do not form part of the core lending and deposit-taking business of the Group they are excluded when reporting loans and advances to customers and customer deposits on an underlying basis. Unless otherwise stated, income statement commentaries throughout this document compare the three months to 31 March 2021 to the three months to 31 March 2020 and the balance sheet analysis compares the Group balance sheet as at 31 March 2021 to the Group balance sheet as at 31 December 2020. Alternative performance measures: The Group uses a number of alternative performance measures, including underlying profit, in the discussion of its business performance and financial position. There have been no changes to the definitions used by the Group; further information on these measures is set out on page 348 of the Group's 2020 Annual Report and Accounts. Capital: Capital and leverage ratios reported as at 31 March 2021 incorporate profits for the period that remain subject to formal verification in accordance with the Capital Requirements Regulation. The Q1 2021 Interim Pillar 3 Report can be found at: https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/investors/financial-downloads/ FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This document contains certain forward looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and section 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended, with respect to the business, strategy, plans and/or results of Lloyds Banking Group plc together with its subsidiaries (the Group) and its current goals and expectations relating to its future financial condition and performance. Statements that are not historical or current facts, including statements about the Group's or its directors' and/or management's beliefs and expectations, are forward looking statements. Words such as 'believes', 'achieves', 'anticipates', 'estimates', 'expects', 'targets', 'should', 'intends', 'aims', 'projects', 'plans', 'potential', 'will', 'would', 'could', 'considered', 'likely', 'may', 'seek', 'estimate' and variations of these words and similar future or conditional expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. Examples of such forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements or guidance relating to: projections or expectations of the Group's future financial position including profit attributable to shareholders, provisions, economic profit, dividends, capital structure, portfolios, net interest margin, capital ratios, liquidity, risk-weighted assets (RWAs), expenditures or any other financial items or ratios; litigation, regulatory and governmental investigations; the Group's future financial performance; the level and extent of future impairments and write-downs; statements of plans, objectives or goals of the Group or its management including in respect of statements about the future business and economic environments in the UK and elsewhere including, but not limited to, future trends in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit and equity market levels and demographic developments; statements about competition, regulation, disposals and consolidation or technological developments in the financial services industry; and statements of assumptions underlying such statements. By their nature, forward looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon circumstances that will or may occur in the future. Factors that could cause actual business, strategy, plans and/or results (including but not limited to the payment of dividends) to differ materially from forward looking statements made by the Group or on its behalf include, but are not limited to: general economic and business conditions in the UK and internationally; market related trends and developments; fluctuations in interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, stock markets and currencies; any impact of the transition from IBORs to alternative reference rates; the ability to access sufficient sources of capital, liquidity and funding when required; changes to the Group's credit ratings; the ability to derive cost savings and other benefits including, but without limitation, as a result of any acquisitions, disposals and other strategic transactions; potential changes in dividend policy; the ability to achieve strategic objectives; the Group's ESG targets and/or commitments; changing customer behaviour including consumer spending, saving and borrowing habits; changes to borrower or counterparty credit quality impacting the recoverability and value of balance sheet assets; concentration of financial exposure; management and monitoring of conduct risk; exposure to counterparty risk (including but not limited to third parties conducting illegal activities without the Group's knowledge); instability in the global financial markets, including Eurozone instability, instability as a result of uncertainty surrounding the exit by the UK from the European Union (EU) and the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, instability as a result of the potential for other countries to exit the EU or the Eurozone, and the impact of any sovereign credit rating downgrade or other sovereign financial issues; political instability including as a result of any UK general election and any further possible referendum on Scottish independence; technological changes and risks to the security of IT and operational infrastructure, systems, data and information resulting from increased threat of cyber and other attacks; natural, pandemic (including but not limited to the COVID-19 pandemic) and other disasters, adverse weather and similar contingencies outside the Group's control; inadequate or failed internal or external processes or systems; acts of war, other acts of hostility, terrorist acts and responses to those acts, or other such events; geopolitical unpredictability; risks relating to sustainability and climate change, including the Group's ability along with the government and other stakeholders to manage and mitigate the impacts of climate change effectively; changes in laws, regulations, practices and accounting standards or taxation, including as a result of the UK's exit from the EU; changes to regulatory capital or liquidity requirements (including regulatory measures to restrict distributions to address potential capital and liquidity stress) and similar contingencies outside the Group's control; the policies, decisions and actions of governmental or regulatory authorities or courts in the UK, the EU, the US or elsewhere including the implementation and interpretation of key laws, legislation and regulation together with any resulting impact on the future structure of the Group; the ability to attract and retain senior management and other employees and meet its diversity objectives; actions or omissions by the Group's directors, management or employees including industrial action; changes in the Group's ability to develop sustainable finance products and the Group's capacity to measure the climate impact from its financing activity, which may affect the Group's ability to achieve its climate ambition; changes to the Group's post-retirement defined benefit scheme obligations; the extent of any future impairment charges or write-downs caused by, but not limited to, depressed asset valuations, market disruptions and illiquid markets; the value and effectiveness of any credit protection purchased by the Group; the inability to hedge certain risks economically; the adequacy of loss reserves; the actions of competitors, including non-bank financial services, lending companies and digital innovators and disruptive technologies; and exposure to regulatory or competition scrutiny, legal, regulatory or competition proceedings, investigations or complaints. Please refer to the latest Annual Report on Form 20-F filed by Lloyds Banking Group plc with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC), which is available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov, for a discussion of certain factors and risks. Lloyds Banking Group plc may also make or disclose written and/or oral forward looking statements in reports filed with or furnished to the SEC, Lloyds Banking Group plc annual reviews, half-year announcements, proxy statements, offering circulars, prospectuses, press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by the directors, officers or employees of Lloyds Banking Group plc to third parties, including financial analysts. Except as required by any applicable law or regulation, the forward looking statements contained in this document are made as of today's date, and the Group expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward looking statements contained in this document to reflect any change in the Group's expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. The information, statements and opinions contained in this document do not constitute a public offer under any applicable law or an offer to sell any securities or financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or financial instruments. CONTACTS For further information please contact:
INVESTORS AND ANALYSTS Group Investor Relations Director 020 7356 1571 douglas.radcliffe@lloydsbanking.com Edward Sands Director of Investor Relations 020 7356 1585 edward.sands@lloydsbanking.com Eileen Khoo Director of Investor Relations 07385 376435 eileen.khoo@lloydsbanking.com Nora Thoden Director of Investor Relations - ESG 020 7356 2334 nora.thoden@lloydsbanking.com
External Relations Director 020 7356 2362 grant.ringshaw@lloydsbanking.com Matt Smith Head of Media Relations 020 7356 3522 matt.smith@lloydsbanking.com
Copies of this interim management statement may be obtained from: Investor Relations, Lloyds Banking Group plc, 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN The statement can also be found on the Group's website - www.lloydsbankinggroup.com
Registered office: Lloyds Banking Group plc, The Mound, Edinburgh, EH1 1YZ Registered in Scotland No. 95000
This information is provided by RNS, the news service of the London Stock Exchange. RNS is approved by the Financial Conduct Authority to act as a Primary Information Provider in the United Kingdom. Terms and conditions relating to the use and distribution of this information may apply. For further information, please contact rns@lseg.com or visit www.rns.com.
28.04.2021 Dissemination of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a service of EQS Group AG. |
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| Language: | English |
| Company: | Lloyds Banking Group PLC |
| Gresham Street | |
| EC2V 7HN London | |
| United Kingdom | |
| Phone: | 020 7626 1500 |
| Internet: | www.lloydsbankinggroup.com |
| ISIN: | GB0008706128 |
| WKN: | 871784 |
| Listed: | Regulated Unofficial Market in Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Hanover, Munich, Stuttgart, Tradegate Exchange; London, BX, SIX |
| EQS News ID: | 1189630 |
| End of News | DGAP News Service |
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1189630 28.04.2021
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