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Original-Research: PSI SE - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to PSI SE
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on PSI SE (ISIN: DE000A0Z1JH9). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his ADD rating and decreased the price target from EUR 26.00 to EUR 25.00. Abstract: PSI's Q3 report showed results continuing to rebound from the impact of the mid-February cyberattack. Q3/24 sales were flat at €65.1m (Q3/23: €65.2m; FBe: €62.0m), but EBIT came in at breakeven (Q3/23: €2.6m; FBe: €1.6m) after losses of €-14.8m and €-4.6m in Q1/24 and Q2/24 respectively. The order intake was down 36.2% at €44m (Q3/23: €69m) in Q3/24 after falling 8.9% at the H1/24 stage. The increase in the rate of decline was attributable to a Q3/23 order intake which was 25.5% above the Q2/23 level and included large orders from Malaysia; the Swiss transmission grid operator, Swissgrid (both Energy Management); and the footwear retailer, Deichmann (Production Management). We expect EBIT to improve further to €4.6m in Q4/24, bringing FY24 EBIT to €-14.8m - in line with management guidance that this metric will not undershoot €-15m. Following the Q3/24 results and analysts' call, we now take a more conservative view of the pace of recovery in sales at Energy Management, having reduced our 2025 segment sales forecast by 11.7% and made similar reductions for subsequent years. However, we continue to expect the introduction of the 'Control System of the Future' to push Energy Management's EBIT margin towards double digits over the next five years. As we expect Production Management to account for around two thirds of EBIT in the medium term, the impact of the Energy Management sales forecast reductions on our price target is relatively small. We now see fair value for the PSI share at €25 (previously: €26). We maintain our Add recommendation. First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu PSI SE (ISIN: DE000A0Z1JH9) veröffentlicht. Analyst Simon Scholes bestätigt seine ADD-Empfehlung und senkt das Kursziel von EUR 26,00 auf EUR 25,00. Zusammenfassung: Der Q3-Bericht von PSI zeigt, dass sich die Ergebnisse von den Auswirkungen des Cyberangriffs Mitte Februar weiter erholen. Der Umsatz in Q3/24 stagnierte bei €65,1 Mio. (Q3/23: €65,2 Mio.; FBe: €62,0 Mio. €), aber das EBIT erreichte ein ausgeglichenes Ergebnis (Q3/23: €2,6 Mio.; FBe: €1,6 Mio.) nach Verlusten von €14,8 Mio. und €4,6 Mio. in Q1/24 bzw. Q2/24. Der Auftragseingang sank in Q3/24 um 36,2% auf €44 Mio. (Q3/23:€ 69 Mio.), nachdem er in H1/24 um 8,9% zurückgegangen war. Der Anstieg des Rückgangtempos ist auf einen Auftragseingang in Q3/23 zurückzuführen, der um 25,5 % über dem Niveau von Q2/23 lag und Großaufträge aus Malaysia, vom Schweizer Übertragungsnetzbetreiber Swissgrid (beide Energiemanagement) und vom Schuheinzelhändler Deichmann (Produktionsmanagement) enthielt. Wir gehen davon aus, dass sich das EBIT in Q4/24 weiter auf €4,6 Mio. verbessern wird, so dass sich das EBIT im GJ24 auf €14,8 Mio. belaufen wird - in Übereinstimmung mit der Prognose des Managements, dass diese Kennzahl €15 Mio. nicht unterschreiten wird. Nach den Q3/24-Ergebnissen und der Analystenkonferenz schätzen wir das Tempo der Umsatzerholung im Energiemanagement konservativer ein und haben unsere Umsatzprognose für das Jahr 2025 um 11,7% gesenkt und ähnliche Reduzierungen für die Folgejahre vorgenommen. Wir gehen jedoch weiterhin davon aus, dass die Einführung des 'Leitsystems der Zukunft' die EBIT-Marge des Energiemanagements in den nächsten fünf Jahren in den zweistelligen Bereich bringen wird. Da wir davon ausgehen, dass das Produktionsmanagement mittelfristig etwa zwei Drittel des EBITs ausmachen wird, sind die Auswirkungen der Senkung der Umsatzprognose für das Energiemanagement auf unser Kursziel relativ gering. Wir sehen den fairen Wert der PSI-Aktie nun bei €25 (vorher: €26). Wir behalten unsere Hinzufügen-Empfehlung bei. Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31301.pdf Contact for questions: First Berlin Equity Research GmbH Herr Gaurav Tiwari Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686 web: www.firstberlin.com E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
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2029163 13.11.2024 CET/CEST
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