BUY
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Original-Research: Rosenbauer International AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Rosenbauer International AG
Outlook into FY25e: another strong year ahead for Rosenbauer Topic: With a record high order backlog and restored supply chains, Rosenbauer should deliver another strong year after an already solid FY24e. Already in 9M’24, Rosenbauer increased its sales by 20% yoy to € 841m continuing its turnaround after the challenging FY22. We expect the growth story to continue for Q4’24e and FY25e due to multifactorial reasons. (1) The demand for firefighting trucks and equipment is unbrokenly high with € 1.23bn order intake in 9M’24 (+20% yoy; book-to-bill 1.47x) and a record high in order backlog of € 2.20bn. (2) The chassis supply chain crisis in FY21&22 has successively eased throughout FY23 and FY24. At the time, chassis availability is not a major concern. (3) Significant price increases are still in the order book as the average price per fire truck in order intake during 9M’24 increased by 14.6% yoy to € 571t. Hence, we not only expect Rosenbauer to reach the FY24e top-line guidance, which was raised in November to over € 1.20bn (eNuW: € 1.25bn) but also to achieve high single-digit sales growth for FY25e (eNuW: € 1.36bn). Additionally, we expect to see a further improvement in EBIT margin next year to 5.6% (vs. eNuW 5.0% in FY24e; 3.5% in FY23; -1.1% in FY22), mainly thanks to price increases but also due to the margin attractive Equipment segment. Thus, EBIT should increase disproportionately by 21% yoy to € 76.5m. Capital increase and debt refinancing: Announced in the company news from 9th December, Rosenbauer has obtained essential regulatory approvals such as in the EU and the US, but not all approvals in all further relevant jurisdictions. The missing approvals are expected to be obtained by the end of Q1'25e. With Robau as a new strong investor, Rosenbauer will raise its equity ratio to a healthy level and satisfy its covenants. In addition, Rosenbauer has agreed on a refinancing of € 330m with its major lenders (company news 19th Dec.) with a term until December 2027 and extension options for additional two more years. We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of € 50, based on DCF. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31605.pdf For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
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