Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu UmweltBank AG

Unternehmen: UmweltBank AG
ISIN: DE0005570808

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: Hold
Kursziel: 16.30 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

1.HY 2022: Lower earnings due to difficult market environment; earnings burdened by one-off expenses; price target reduced to EUR16.30 (previously: EUR17.20); rating HOLD confirmed

With the presentation of the 2022 half-year figures, it is clear at first glance that UmweltBank AG was able to expand its business volume even in the face of the current challenging economic situation. Compared to the end of the financial year 2021, their business volume increased by EUR 285 million or 4.4%. New customer business of EUR 325 million contributed to this, which remains at a high level and was in line with the company's expectations.

Despite this development, which was in line with expectations, UmweltBank AG reported a significant decline in the net interest, financial and valuation result by -13.1 % to EUR 29.69 million (previous year: EUR 34.16 million). In particular, the interest result is likely to have declined due to the expiry of special corona conditions for the origin of funds (GLGR funds) and thus due to an increase in interest expenses. Although this had been expected in advance, the amount of the decline was greater than we had assumed.

Accompanying the overall lower-than-expected total income, total costs climbed by EUR 4.29 million or 26.4% to EUR 20.56 million (previous year: EUR 16.27 million). This development is partly due to the expansion of the workforce. As of 30 June 2022, the number of employees was 314, a significant increase over the previous year's figure of 278. In addition, a new core banking system is currently being introduced, which is expected to result in extraordinary expenses of EUR 3 million in the current financial year. In addition to these expected cost increases, the bank had to increase the bank levy for deposit protection to EUR 2.57 million (previous year: EUR 1.54 million).

The sum of the effects described above led to a significantly reduced pretax result of EUR 14.01 million (previous year: EUR 21.66 million) compared to the previous year. The profit for the period after tax was also significantly below the previous year's level at EUR9.07 million (previous year: EUR14.40 million).

In view of the lower than expected development of earnings, the UmweltBank management had already made a forecast adjustment before the publication of the half-year figures. For the current financial year 2022, a pre-tax result of approximately EUR 34 million is expected, after a result at the level of the previous year (EUR 38.10 million) had previously been anticipated.

We take into account the lower than expected development of the net interest, financial and valuation result in the first half of 2022 and reduce our forecast to EUR 60.62 million (GBC forecast previously: EUR 63.06 million). In parallel, we leave the estimates for net commission income and net trading income, which increased by 29.7% in the first half of 2022, unchanged. We continue to assume an expansion of the investment, securities and fund business. This is characterised by the issue of two new funds in the UmweltSpektrum -family, which will expand the basis for commission income. Similarly, we have raised our cost estimates taking into account the increased provisioning for operational risks as well as the one-off expenses for deposit insurance. The resulting expected pre-tax result of EUR 34.01 million (GBC previously forecast EUR 38.10 million) is thus within the updated corporate guidance.

The UmweltBank management has also announced the planned sale of a stake in a wind farm. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second half of 2022 and, if successful, the management board anticipates an extraordinary contribution to earnings in the low double-digit million range. This possible positive effect on earnings is neither included in the company guidance nor in our estimates. As soon as the sale has taken place, we will make a corresponding adjustment.

The sum of the discounted residual income results in a value of EUR 577.44 million on a target price basis of 31 December 2023. In view of an outstanding number of shares of 35.44 million, a fair enterprise value per share of EUR 16.30 (previously: EUR 17.20) is calculated. Although the forecast adjustment for the current 2022 financial year resulted in a slight price target reduction, the increase in the cost of equity to 3.95 % (previously: 3.50 %) was mainly responsible for this. Based on the current price level of EUR15.05, we continue to assign a HOLD rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/25099.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (1,4,5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) completion of the study: 19.08.22 (10:50am) Date (time) first publication: 22.08.22 (09:30am)

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