Buy
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Original-Research: Schloss Wachenheim AG - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to Schloss Wachenheim AG
First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Schloss Wachenheim AG (ISIN: DE0007229007). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 22.00 to EUR 21.00. Abstract: SWA's post-Christmas quarter is usually the weakest period of its financial year, in which EBIT is typically close to the breakeven level. Q3 24/25 sales fell 0.7% to €86.5m (FBe: €91.8m; Q3 23/24: €87.1m), while EBIT came in at €-2.4m (FBe: €1.2m; Q3 23/24: €-2.2m). Sales in Germany and France climbed by 4.9% and 3.2% respectively, but sales in East Central Europe fell 9.6%. We surmise that the sales dip in East Central Europe was caused by weaker consumer sentiment, influenced by economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Management was previously guiding towards 2024/25 sales growth of ca. 5% and EBIT of €31m-€33m but is now looking for sales to increase by ca. 4% and EBIT to come at the lower end of the €31-€33m range. 2024/25 sales growth of ca. 4% implies growth of ca. 12% for Q4 24/25, so management is clearly expecting a strong rebound in the current quarter. The recent development of the East Central Europe segment notwithstanding, we continue to expect falling inflation and interest rates to positively influence SWA's business in the longer term. We maintain our Buy recommendation, but have reduced the price target from €22 to €21 to reflect reductions in our earnings forecasts in the light of the weak Q3 24/25 results. Zusammenfassung: Das Nachweihnachtsquartal von SWA ist normalerweise die schwächste Periode des Geschäftsjahres, in der das EBIT typischerweise nahe der Gewinnschwelle liegt. In Q3 24/25 sank der Umsatz um 0,7% auf €86,5 Mio. (FBe: €91,8 Mio.; Q3 23/24: €87,1 Mio.), das EBIT lag bei €-2,4 Mio. (FBe: €1,2 Mio.; Q3 23/24: €-2,2 Mio.). Die Umsätze in Deutschland und Frankreich stiegen um 4,9% bzw. 3,2%, während sie in Ostmitteleuropa um 9,6% zurückgingen. Wir vermuten, dass der Umsatzrückgang in Ostmitteleuropa auf eine schwächere Konsumentenstimmung zurückzuführen ist, die durch wirtschaftliche und geopolitische Unsicherheiten beeinflusst wurde. Das Management erwartete bisher für 2024/25 ein Umsatzwachstum von ca. 5 % und ein EBIT von €31 Mio. bis €33 Mio., geht nun aber davon aus, dass der Umsatz um ca. 4 % steigen und das EBIT am unteren Ende der Spanne von €31 Mio. bis €33 Mio. liegen wird. Ein Umsatzwachstum von ca. 4 % für 2024/25 impliziert ein Wachstum von ca. 12 % für Q4 24/25, so dass das Management eindeutig eine starke Erholung im laufenden Quartal erwartet. Ungeachtet der jüngsten Entwicklung des Segments Ostmitteleuropa gehen wir weiterhin davon aus, dass sinkende Inflation und Zinsen das Geschäft von SWA langfristig positiv beeinflussen werden. Wir behalten unsere Kaufempfehlung bei, haben jedoch das Kursziel von €22 auf €21 gesenkt, um der Reduzierung unserer Gewinnprognosen angesichts der schwachen Ergebnisse für Q3 24/25 Rechnung zu tragen. Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32560.pdf Contact for questions: First Berlin Equity Research GmbH Herr Gaurav Tiwari Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686 web: www.firstberlin.com E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
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2135370 12.05.2025 CET/CEST
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