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Original-Research: SFC Energy AG - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to SFC Energy AG
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu SFC Energy AG (ISIN: DE0007568578) veröffentlicht. Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und senkt das Kursziel von EUR 34,00 auf EUR 31,00. Zusammenfassung: SFC Energy hat die Q3-Zahlen veröffentlicht und eine Telefonkonferenz abgehalten. Der Umsatz stieg um 11% J/J auf €34,3 Mio., und das bereinigte EBITDA wuchs überproportional (+24% auf €5,7 Mio., 15% über FBe). Mit einer bereinigten EBITDA-Marge von 17,3 % in den ersten neun Monaten erreichte SFC ein in der Branche bisher unerreichtes Profitabilitätsniveau. Das Unternehmen präzisierte seine Guidance mit einem Umsatz am unteren Ende der alten Guidance (jetzt: €142 Mio. - €145 Mio.) und einem bereinigten EBITDA am oberen Ende (jetzt: €20 Mio. - €21,5 Mio.). Das Management berichtete von einem starken Optimismus der US-Kunden (Verteidigung, öffentliche Sicherheit, Öl und Gas) nach dem Sieg von Donald Trump bei den US-Präsidentschaftswahlen. Angesichts der aktuellen geopolitischen Unsicherheit, des schleppenden Wachstums in Europa und der niedriger als erwarteten Umsatzguidance für 2024 passen wir unsere Prognosen an. Wir erwarten weiterhin ein starkes Wachstum von SFC in den kommenden Jahren (2024E-2027E CAGR: +22%) aufgrund der hervorragenden Direktmethanol-Brennstoffzellenprodukte und der wachsenden globalen Kundenbasis. Zudem verfügt SFC über eine starke Bilanz, die es ermöglicht, als Konsolidierer in der Branche aufzutreten (siehe Übernahme von Ballard Power in Dänemark im Oktober). Weiteres anorganisches Wachstum ist noch nicht in unseren Prognosen berücksichtigt. Ein aktualisiertes DCF-Modell führt zu einem neuen Kursziel von €31 (bisher: €34). Wir bestätigen unsere Kaufempfehlung. First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on SFC Energy AG (ISIN: DE0007568578). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 34.00 to EUR 31.00. Abstract: SFC Energy reported Q3 figures and held a conference call. Revenue grew 11% y/y to €34.3m and adjusted EBITDA growth outpaced revenue growth (+24% y/y to €5.7m, 15% ahead of FBe). SFC reached an unparalleled level of profitability in the industry with a 9M adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.3%. The company specified guidance with sales towards the lower end of old guidance (now: €142m - €145m) and adjusted EBITDA towards the upper end (now: €20m - €21.5m). Management reported that US clients are very optimistic (defence, public security, oil & gas) following the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election. Given current geopolitical uncertainty, sluggish growth in Europe, and lower than expected 2024 revenue guidance, we adjust our forecasts. We still expect SFC to grow strongly in coming years (2024E-2027E CAGR: +22%) due to its outstanding direct methanol fuel cell products and its expanding global client base. Plus, a strong balance sheet gives SFC sufficient firepower to act as a consolidator in the sector (see deal with Ballard Power in Denmark in October). Further inorganic growth will come on top of our forecasts. An updated DCF model yields a new price target of €31 (previously: €34). We confirm our Buy recommendation. Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31395.pdf Contact for questions: First Berlin Equity Research GmbH Herr Gaurav Tiwari Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686 web: www.firstberlin.com E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
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2034977 20.11.2024 CET/CEST
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