Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu UmweltBank AG

Unternehmen: UmweltBank AG
ISIN: DE0005570808

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 16.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Extraordinary proceeds after sale of wind farm; EBT guidance raised to € 40 million; price target reduced to € 16.00 (previously: € 16.30) after raising cost of equity; Rating: BUY
 
In an announcement dated 28 October 2022, UmweltBank’s management announced the successful sale of a wind farm investment. The net proceeds of approximately € 20 million correspond to the order of magnitude communicated in advance, which had held out the prospect of an extraordinary contribution to earnings in the low double-digit million range. Including the extraordinary contribution to earnings, the company is adjusting the forecast for the current 2022 financial year. Earnings before taxes of approximately € 40 million are now expected, compared to the previous forecast, which had held out the prospect of EBT of € 34 million.  
This means that not all of the net proceeds will be reflected in the after-tax result. On the one hand, the management of UmweltBank AG will make higher provisions in response to the current challenging business environment and the weaker business outlook in the securities business. Although this has an effect on earnings, the provision increases the regulatory equity capital and could thus be regarded as an anticipated retention of earnings. On the other hand, the extraordinary income is used to take into account currently visible burdens from the valuation of fixed-income securities in their own portfolio in advance in the current 2022 financial year. In total, the resulting burden on earnings is likely to amount to around € 14 million, although it is not clear from the company's announcement which portion is attributable to the higher provisioning and which portion to the valuation adjustment of fixed-interest securities.
 
However, since the fixed-interest securities are usually held by UmweltBank AG until final maturity, the nominal amount should flow back in the event of a trouble-free repayment of the bonds affected by the devaluation. In this case, there would then be a reversal of the devaluation previously made, which would be accompanied by a special income.  
Basically, the current market environment presents a mixed picture with regard to the business prospects of UmweltBank AG. On the one hand, the interest rate turnaround is accompanied by an increase in the interest margin, although positive effects are only likely to become visible in the coming periods. In the period from January 2022 to September 2022, for example, construction interest rates have risen significantly from 1.0 % to around 3.5 %.
 
The picture for new lending business is also mixed. While, according to the company, demand for financing in the renewable energy sector remains high, demand for real estate financing is, as expected, subdued. As of 31 December 2021, real estate loans accounted for a total of 35% of UmweltBank AG's total loan volume.
 
Demand for investment funds is also below management expectations due to market conditions. In total, the three funds of the UmweltSpektrum family have a fund volume of around € 120 million. In their first press briefing in 2022, the UmweltBank management announced € 230 million as their target fund volume by the end of the current financial year.  
We are adjusting our forecasts for the current financial year 2022 to the newly issued guidance and now expect a pre-tax result of € 40.01 million (previously: € 34.01 million) with unchanged sales. Accordingly, the after-tax result should rise to € 27.21 million (previous year: € 23.13 million). Our forecasts for the coming financial years remain unchanged.  
The sum of the discounted residual income results in a value of € 566.92 million on a target price basis of 31 December 2023. In view of an outstanding number of shares of 35.44 million, a fair enterprise value per share of € 16.00 (previously: € 16.30) is calculated. On the one hand, the forecast increase made after the sale of the wind farm has resulted in a higher fair value. However, the increase in the cost of equity to 4.20 % (previously: 3.95 %), resulting from the increase in the risk-free interest rate to 1.50 % (previously: 1.25 %), is accompanied by a reduction in the target price. Following the sharp decline in the UmweltBank share price, we now assign a rating of BUY (previously: HOLD).  

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/25881.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (1,4,5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) completion of the study: 08.11.22 (3:04 pm) Date (time) first publication: 09.11.22 (09:30 am)

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Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.