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Original-Research: Vectron Systems AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Vectron Systems AG
Unternehmen: Vectron Systems AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Kursziel: 10.10 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Matthias Greiffenberger
9 months 2023: Significant increase in sales and earnings achieved; 2023
forecasts raised and target price increased slightly; BUY
According to preliminary figures, Vectron Systems AG (short: Vectron) achieved a significant growth in turnover and result in the third quarter, which seamlessly continues the positive development of the previous year. The sales revenue of € 9.4 million (previous year: € 5.7 million) generated in the third quarter of 2023 was 63.6 % higher than in the previous year. While the major part of the revenue growth is likely to be attributable to acardo Group AG, which was acquired on 01.01.2023, the POS Systems segment should also have contributed organic growth. This should be primarily due to the expansion of the digital business, which is reflected in an increase in recurring revenue to € 3.4 million (PY: € 1.4 million). In the third quarter, when demand is typically slow due to seasonal factors, the improved ability to plan the business, which has already been achieved, meant that there was no longer a noticeable decline in both revenue and earnings. At € 1.1 million (previous year: € -2.1 million), EBITDA was only slightly below the EBITDA of € 1.2 million for the second quarter of 2023. Although the quarterly result was positively influenced by the release of provisions in the amount of € 0.4 million, both business units generated positive EBITDA.
In the nine-month period, turnover increased significantly by 52.5 % to € 27.9 million (previous year: € 18.3 million). Recurring income rose by 47.7 % to € 9.6 million (previous year: € 6.5 million) and consequently EBITDA also increased significantly to € 2.8 million (previous year: € -2.6 million). Overall, the 9-month EBITDA was positively influenced by special effects amounting to € 0.9 million. On the basis of these figures, our previous forecast for the full year 2023 (see study dated 14 September 2023), in which we assumed revenues of € 36.75 million and EBITDA of € 2.54 million, appears somewhat too low. This is particularly true in view of the fact that the basis for recurring revenues is steadily growing with the planned introduction of further digital modules. In addition, acardo's couponing business should benefit from the strong consumer months, especially towards the end of the year.
We are therefore raising our revenue estimates for the current 2023 financial year to € 38.55 million (previously: € 36.75 million). Analogously, we expect an EBITDA of € 3.17 million (previously: € 2.54 million) and are thus within the company's recently raised earnings guidance, according to which the Vectron management expects an EBITDA between € 2.2 million and € 3.2 million. After consideration of the PPA-amortisation, which is related to the acardo acquisition, Vectron AG should show a negative EBIT of € -0.33 million (previously € -0.96 million). Adjusted for this non-cash effect, this corresponds to an EBIT of € 1.67 million (previously € 1.04 million).
As a result of the slight forecast increase, which is limited to the estimates for the current financial year 2023, we have determined an only marginally higher price target of € 10.10 (previously: € 10.00) within the framework of the DCF valuation model. We continue to assign the BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/27949.pdf
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Date (time) completion: 25.10.23 (8:20 am) Date (time) first transmission: 25.10.23 (10:00 am)
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