BUY
Original-Research: elumeo SE - von NuWays AG
Einstufung von NuWays AG zu elumeo SE
Unternehmen: elumeo SE
ISIN: DE000A11Q059
Anlass der Studie:
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 02.02.2024
Kursziel: 5.00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monate
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Mark-Hendrik Schüssler
Progress & outlook on jooli. Launched in the Indian market to capitalize on
both lower customer acquisition
costs and and a trove of data needed to enhance the app's algorithm, jooli
has already witnessed a
considerable boost in order volume (+560% in December vs. the previous
month), aided by
jooliPay. While first KPIs are promising, they are not yet meaningful, and
hence we do not expect material
top or bottom line contributions from jooli before 2026e, leading us to
adjust our estimates accordingly.
FY'23e preview & long-term growth. As we expect Q4 sales to be burdened by
the muted consumer
sentiment witnessed over the last quarters, and hence softer-than-expected
revenues from the holiday
season, we trimmed our estimates: Q4 sales are now seen to come in at c. €
11.3m (flat yoy), implying
sales of € 44.7m for the full year (-3% yoy; eNuW old: € 45.3m), largely
driven by a lower average sales
price of € 67 (-7% yoy) as customers postpone big ticket items sales, and
only partial recovery of items
sold to 168k (+7% yoy). While the weaker-than-expected top line will likely
be affected by a weaker-thanexpected top line, the company's cost cutting
program should continue to bear fruit and thus partially
offset a lacking fixed cost coverage. EBIT should hence run to c. € -0.13m
for Q4'23
(+89% yoy) and c. € -1.2m for the full year (+17% yoy; eNuW old: € -0.8m).
Convertible bond financing. In Q4'23, elumeo was able to secure a favorable
5-year convertible debt
financing of c. € 1.2m at a 3.8% interest rate from selected suppliers of
the company. The out-of-themoney
strike price (€ 4.50) along with the belowthe-market interest rate provide
elumeo with a cash infusion
that should give elumeo room to maneuver and to focus on its long-term
growth initiative #juwelo100.
The outlook for the long term remains bright. As the company prepares jooli
for a successful roll-out
in its European markets, elumeo's core business is well-positioned to
capitalize on an eventual recovery
of the jewelry and overall e-commerce market, with sales prices and items
sold likely to recover to their
historical means. Overall, elumeo looks set to grow sales by 7% CAGR to c.
€ 55m by FY'26e along with
reaching a healthy EBIT margin of c. 3% in FY'26e (eNuW), supported by
scale efficiencies. Mind you,
that positive effects stemming from the jooli roll-out are not reflected in
our estimates.
BUY with a changed PT of € 5.00 based on DCF.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28785.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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