Buy
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Original-Research: ad pepper media International N.V. - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to ad pepper media International N.V.
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu ad pepper media International N.V. (ISIN: NL0000238145) veröffentlicht. Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und bestätigt sein Kursziel von EUR 2,90. Zusammenfassung: ad pepper media (APM) hat vorläufige Q4-Zahlen vorgelegt. Das EBITDA übertraf sowohl unsere Prognose (+10%) als auch den Vorjahreswert (+120%). Die EBITDA-Marge hat sich von 6,3% in Q4/23 auf 13,9% mehr als verdoppelt. Der Hauptgrund für dieses sehr gute Ergebnis ist die Stärke des Webgains-Segments, das €1,1 Mio. zum Konzern-EBITDA von €0,8 Mio. beitrug. APM erwirtschaftete 2024 ein EBITDA von €2,0 Mio. gegenüber €0,0 Mio. im Jahr 2023. Auf der Grundlage der vorläufigen Zahlen für 2024 haben wir unsere Prognosen für 2025E und die folgenden Jahre überarbeitet (geringeres Wachstum, höhere Rentabilität). Trotz schwacher Wachstumsprognosen für APMs Hauptmärkte Großbritannien und Deutschland erwarten wir für 2025E ein Wachstum von 5% im Jahresvergleich sowie eine weitere Steigerung der EBITDA-Marge von 9,3% im Jahr 2024 auf 10,3%. Neben der Erholung von Umsatz und Ergebnis könnte die mehrheitliche Übernahme der solute, dem Betreiber des Preisvergleichsportals 'billiger.de', ein weiterer Kurstreiber sein. APM ist seit 2023 mit 26% an solute beteiligt und plant weiterhin die Übernahme der Mehrheit. Ein aktualisiertes DCF-Modell führt zu einem unveränderten Kursziel von €2,90. Wir bestätigen unsere Kaufempfehlung. First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on ad pepper media International N.V. (ISIN: NL0000238145). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his EUR 2.90 price target. Abstract: ad pepper media (APM) has reported preliminary Q4 figures. EBITDA topped both our forecast (+10%) and the prior year figure (+120%). The EBITDA margin more than doubled from 6.3% in Q4/23 to 13.9%. The main reason for this very good result is the strength of the Webgains segment, which contributed €1.1m to the group EBITDA of €0.8m. APM generated EBITDA of €2.0m in 2024 versus €0.0m in 2023. Based on the preliminary 2024 figures, we have revised our forecasts for 2025E and the following years (lower growth, higher profitability). Despite weak growth forecasts for APM's main UK and Germany markets, we expect APM to grow 5% y/y in 2025E as well as further EBITDA margin expansion from 9.3% in 2024 to 10.3%. Besides recovering sales and earnings, another share price driver could be the takeover of a majority stake in solute, which operates the price comparison portal 'billiger.de'. APM has owned 26% of solute since 2023, and still plans to take over a majority stake. An updated DCF model yields an unchanged price target of €2.90. We confirm our Buy recommendation. Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31797.pdf Contact for questions: First Berlin Equity Research GmbH Herr Gaurav Tiwari Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686 web: www.firstberlin.com E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
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2087847 18.02.2025 CET/CEST
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