BUY
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Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB
Q1 confirms strong organic growth momentum for 2025, PT up Q1 sales rose by 105% yoy to SEK 75m, whereof SEK 24m came from past M&A. More importantly, this implies 38% yoy organic sales growth, showing the strong underlying rise in demand for Astor’s products and services. Against this backdrop, our organic sales growth assumption of 30% yoy (old: 28% yoy) for FY’25e could still turn out to be conservative, also because Q1 is seasonally less strong. On a segmental basis, the Tech segment increased sales from SEK 0.6m to SEK 24m, mainly driven by the consolidation of Scandiflash, whereas the Industry segment grew sales by 50% yoy to SEK 54m. Order intake grew proportionately to SEK 67m (0.9x book-to-bill), whose rapid increase should also stem 2/3 from past M&A and 1/3 from organic OI growth. The current order backlog thus stands at SEK 200m, of which SEK 150m are due for delivery in FY’25e, providing excellent visibility. Profitability showed an even stronger performance with group EBITDA expanding by 282% yoy to SEK 8.1m (11% margin, + 5pp yoy). Key drivers, among other things, were (1) the consolidation of Scandiflash into the Tech Segment, raising the EBITDA margin to 14.1% (vs. negative in Q1’24), (2) a 2.2pp yoy EBITDA margin expansion at the Industry segment to 13.7%, driven by a mix of margin accretive acquisitions and operating leverage and (3) a better coverage and a reduction of overhead holding expenses (SEK 1.6m in Q1 vs. SEK 1.7m in Q1’24). Consequently, CFO expanded to SEK 6.7m (83% of EBITDA cash conversion) and FCF arrived positive for the first time at SEK 1.5m and net debt amounted to SEK 40m (SEK 84m incl. leases). Mind you, the proceeds of the SEK 150m capital increase resolved at the end of March have flown in April and will thus will be reflected with Q2 results. Astor started with strong momentum into FY’25e. With a well filled M&A war chest and plenty of acquisition target in the short-term M&A pipeline with a total size of SEK 500m in annual revenues, Astor looks set to continue strong inorganic growth. Also, Sweden’s increased defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030 (prev. target: 2.6% by 2030) should also bode well for continuously high organic sales growth. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an increased PT of SEK 40.00 (old: SEK 39.00), based on DCF You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32596.pdf For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
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2136870 14.05.2025 CET/CEST
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