Buy
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Original-Research: PNE AG - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to PNE AG
First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu PNE AG (ISIN: DE000A0JBPG2) veröffentlicht. Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und bestätigt sein Kursziel von EUR 19,00. Zusammenfassung: PNEs vorläufiges 2024 EBITDA liegt zwischen €60 Mio. und €70 Mio. und übertrifft die Guidance für 2024 von €40 Mio. bis €50 Mio. und FBe von €44,5 Mio.). Dies bedeutet, dass das EBITDA-Wachstum im Jahr 2024 bei mindestens 50% J/J liegt. Wir führen das höhere EBITDA vor allem auf ein deutlich besseres Ergebnis in der Projektentwicklung zurück. Für 2025 rechnet PNE mit einem EBITDA von €70 Mio. bis €110 Mio., während der Marktkonsens bei €66,1 Mio. und FBe bei €64,2 Mio. liegen. Die für 2025 angestrebte EBITDA-Steigerung soll durch eine moderate Erhöhung der Projektverkäufe erreicht werden. PNE hält an ihrer Strategie fest, dem eigenen Ökostrom-Anlagenportfolio weitere Wind- und PV-Projekte hinzuzufügen, allerdings bei einem geringeren Ausbautempo. Wir gehen daher nunmehr von einem stärkeren Umsatz- und EBITDA-Beitrag des Projektsegments und einem langsameren Ausbau des eigenen Anlagenportfolios aus (jetzt +90 MW Wind im Jahr 2025 gegenüber +110 MW zuvor). Wir begrüßen die frühzeitige Veröffentlichung der Prognose für 2025, die die Ergebnistransparenz erhöht, sowie die stärkere Fokussierung auf die kurzfristige Rentabilität, die PNE hilft, zu positiven Nettoergebnissen zurückzukehren. Wir haben unsere Prognosen für 2024E und die folgenden Jahre angehoben. Eine aktualisierte Sum-of-the-Parts-Bewertung bestätigt unser Kursziel von €19. Eine höhere Bewertung des Segments Projektentwicklung wird durch eine niedrigere Bewertung des Segments Stromerzeugung ausgeglichen. Wir bekräftigen unsere Kaufempfehlung. First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on PNE AG (ISIN: DE000A0JBPG2). Analyst Dr. Karsten von Blumenthal reiterated his BUY rating and maintained his EUR 19.00 price target. Abstract: PNE's preliminary 2024 EBITDA is between €60m and €70m and thus above guidance of €40m to €50m and FBe of €44.5m. This means that 2024 EBITDA growth is at least 50% y/y. We attribute the higher EBITDA mainly to a much better Project Development result. For 2025, PNE is guiding towards EBITDA of €70m to €110m, while market consensus was €66.1m and FBe €64.2m. The targeted 2025 EBITDA increase is to be achieved through a moderate increase in the volume of project sales. PNE is sticking to its strategy of adding wind and PV projects to its own green power plant portfolio, but at a slower pace. We thus now model a stronger Project segment revenue & EBITDA contribution and a slower expansion of the own plant portfolio (now +90 MW wind in 2025 versus +110 MW previously). We welcome the early publication of 2025 guidance, which increases earnings visibility, and the stronger focus on short-term profitability, which helps PNE to return to positive net results. We have raised our forecasts for 2024E and the following years. An updated sum-of-the-parts valuation confirms our €19 price target. A higher Project Development segment valuation is balanced by a lower Electricity Generation segment valuation. We reiterate our Buy rating. Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31819.pdf Contact for questions: First Berlin Equity Research GmbH Herr Gaurav Tiwari Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686 web: www.firstberlin.com E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com
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2089327 20.02.2025 CET/CEST
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